Category: 币圈知识

正如所有人的判断一样，金融交易还是成了区块链及加密技术闯入牛市的第一张多米诺骨牌。信用扩张和流动性自驱，在链上金融基础设施初现雏形的过程中，催动了利率协议、抵押借贷协议、去中心化交易协议的爆发式增长。在全球流动性泛滥预期和现状的背景下，加密市场在华尔街和散户重重加码中，攫取了加密金融衍生品第一份原始积累。

之前和一位在美林美银高层从事了20多年资产交易的朋友，聊起当下DeFi资产流动性盛宴将维持多久的话题。她和她的一些同行认为，这轮金融衍生品的快速增长在今年中期左右恐怕会有一轮较大的回撤。理由很简单，从华尔街的固有风险收益思维看来，没有实际实物资产为可见标的物、锚定物的资产，中长期看来一定会有问题。对于华尔街人士来说，配置标的可选项远大于币圈，配置本身也是阶段性动态策略的表象。抛开本轮宏观宽松和刺激导向的货币环境，前段时间用于配置对冲策略的DeFi衍生品加密资产，目前已有机构在向核心加密资产（比如BTC）和其他传统金融资产进行配置转移。即便是链上的信用扩张，当没有被广泛主流共识的底层资产支持前提下，维系信用的体系依然很脆弱；何况层层嵌套设计，底层主流资产的偿付能力存疑；尤其作为这个市场价值基石的BTC、ETH本身也在经历大波动常态。 

仅有衍生套利功能的资产很难维持整个加密行业长期流动性扩张。那么，下一场盛宴将来自何方？

产业资本与资源进场新入口—— 一个市值数据与市场数据爆炸领域

“跨境支付协议”，或将成为产业资本连同产业资源进场的重要入口。以下从产业需求和金融资本双重角度解答这个问题。

这里的启发源于这几天与Velo协议的CEO Tridbodi Arunanondchai在语音中的对话。这位毕业于美国斯坦福信息工程专业，并有十余年银行从业经历的泰国创业者给了我一个数据：“全球目前跨境转账支付市场份额超过1万亿美元，仅东南亚的市场价值就达到1500亿美元。与此同时，东南亚依然有超过1.7亿人没有银行卡，没有银行账户，无法享受基本的金融服务。”而他和他的团队正利用区块链跨区域支付技术，从东南亚开始解决这一痛点。

总结目前加密市场具有跨境支付功能的协议与稳定币，我找了一组数据。2020年1月1日至2021年2月9日的市值对比。主流跨境支付协议里，Ripple（XRP）在深陷SEC起诉阴云中，“仅”增长150%。Terra增长3299.64%；Reserve（REV）增长1079.84%；Stellar（XLM）增长846.06%。在主流美元稳定币里（部分拥有跨境支付转账功能），USDC增长1155.67%；USDT增长599.92%；DUSD从2020年10月的已知数据到2020年2月9日增长287.75%。相比DeFi，跨境支付场景同样涨势惊人，却悄无声息。 

2020–2021加密市场有跨境支付功能的主要协议与稳定币市值增长图

Velo协议本身是一个金融协议，能够发行可与任何法定货币锚定的数字信用。这些数字信用之后会被用于可信任合作伙伴互相之间的商业交易、互动和运作。在Velo这家公司身上，可以窥见符合“跨境支付协议”发展趋势的一些典型特征。因此以Velo为例，来思考跨境支付协议，这个今非昔比的赛道。

很遗憾，这里只接纳“贵族”创业 

跨境转账支付协议曾吸引了像瑞波、R3这样的行业早期创业项目。传统基于银行账户的SWIFT跨境转账支付体系，费用高昂、速度慢、交易透明度不足，在没有银行账户的条件下无法满足转账支付需求等矛盾，一直是这些先行者们着力解决的问题。但在那个链上技术初始、加密稳定币尚未出现的时期。先行者面临着监管合规风险、链上技术能力局限、加密数字资产受众瓶颈、支付场景单一、桥接资产价格波动大、银行壁垒森严、区块链产业认同程度低等困难；导致跨境支付协议的进展一度受阻。

如今，诸多合规用于转移支付的稳定币已在加密市场中无处不在。他们所锚定或桥接的资产，不光是法币，更有BTC、ETH等主流原生数字资产组合。协议捕获价值更多样，选择更自主、链上交易路径更灵活。

构架在专为即时支付转账而开发Stellar公链上，Velo区块链网络性已能每秒完成1000笔交易，在汇款支付场景适用度上远超以太坊。Velo转账交易成本较比特币和以太坊也更占优势。

但相比来说，这些都不是最重要的。非常残酷的现实是，当产业需求和资源寻求入口进入区块链创业市场时，“跨境支付协议”注定将是一个“贵族”创业赛道。小团队或产业背景浅的公司基本没有生存机会。无论是C端的转账汇款，还是对公的跨境支付业务，有雄厚产业资金支撑、有多样支付落地场景、有既有合规背景、对面金融机构有方案推动能力的才具备突围条件。

Velo成立于2018年，由华人跨国巨头，泰国最大商业集团——正大集团联合成立。成立之初，正大集团向Velo直接投资2000万美元；并逐步在使用Velo进行资金管理、贸易融资和结算，通过正大集团在金融、零售、供应链、电信、地产、传媒、制药、农牧食品等多条业务线为Velo提供落地支撑。这其中包括1.2万家7-11便利店、多家银行、正大广场、正大优鲜、正大电商等重支付场景。

就像马斯克在利用特斯拉15亿美元真金拉盘比特币后，依然不忘在产业需求端为比特币带来长线福音——将考虑允许比特币购车。一切又回到了区块链最初的价值愿景，一个点对点的电子支付网络。 

Velo实验室的联合信用交易网络是一个由准入机制的分布式网络，在网络内部，没有中心节点，所有数据都通过可用的最短路径从一个用户发送到另一个用户。受信任的合作伙伴发行与任何稳定币挂钩的数字信用，用于日常运营。这些数字信用的结算由Velo代币担保。因此，Velo代币桥接不同资产类型的价值，并使流动性能够进出Velo信用交换网络。

VELO首笔交易流程

有了技术路径、有了局部应用场景、有了产业资金资源的注入，Velo这样的商业“跨境支付协议”在政策强压和市场规模上是否会步Libra和早期支付项目的后尘？答案是不会的。因为主权数字货币带来了新的空间。

主权数字货币带来的市场红利

主权数字货币的核心竞争力之一在跨境支付环节。在数字化金融新制度的博弈过程中，无论中美，都在利用各自货币影响力角逐话语权，搭建跨境支付场景加密基建的同时也教育着市场。上个月，美国联邦银行和联邦储蓄协会允许使用公共区块链和稳定币进行验证、存储、记录和结算。虽然美国目前为止从未官方公开发行其主权数字货币；只要把目前为止加密市场上的游戏参与者合规纳入到整个监管的可追溯架构之下，就可以利用现行为止一个市场化的思路，让大家以美元为最终价值锚定物的“央行数字货币”，在这个世界上所有接受美元流通的地方迅速地普及。因此USDT、USDC和DAI已逐步进入银行体系的支付结算交易，可以算是合规的跨境支付稳定币。 

中国CBDC是基于现行法币的数字化改造，在国内基于M0的消费支付场景试验也在加速公众对数字货币的认知。实际上对公众来说感受不会非常明显。但是在跨境支付的对公领域则完全不一样。目前跨境收支双方是有时间差的，不管交易速度多快都存在中间商撮合，而基于区块链的跨境支付协议能真正实现点对点支付、实时到账，且降低支付成本。

如果一个生态业态庞大的跨国控股公司，有几千家供应商、几万家客户，全部都需要跨境公对公业务，在条件成熟时整个财务体系即可以完全脱离银行。如果这个跨国控股公司利用自身生态业务，建立起业务多方信用交易网络，甚至发行自己锚定法币的数字通证，这也是Velo依托泰国正大集团切入的点。

在现有情况下，当某些主权数字货币不够灵活、主权信用不够坚实、出于管制原因短期难以自由交易时，将来很多跨境企业可能在注册国直接使用其他国家的CBDC，或区域财团的支付稳定币跟国外的生意伙伴进行结算，不再经过银行。比如将逐步将出现一些国家的企业之间完全用美元稳定币做生意，一些东南亚国家企业，最后在用Velo做跨境结算。 

大国的主权稳定币博弈先行，并不会完全淹没全球范围内跨境支付协议的消失。反而在推动普及非银行账户体系的数字自金融时代，人们的接受度和基础设施也将空前加速。除了美元、人民币、欧元等强势主权数字货币以外，在全球支付稳定币的流动性海洋中，类似Velo、瑞波这样的商业跨境支付协议，将扮演主权城池分割之外的公海，充当连接不同资产类型价值的桥梁资产，推动区域商业生态间的金融效率。

“跨境支付协议”的愿景

无论去中心化的支付结算网络如何发展。在很长一段时期内，银行账户体系仍将占据业务主导权。决定了“跨境支付协议”离不开银行的业务开拓。2020年11月，Velo与VISA全球达成合作，以Velo通证为金融解决方案中作为抵押数字资产，共同开发针对亚洲中小微企业贷款的支付解决方案。随后Velo与其生态公司Lightnet宣布与泰国第一家本土银行泰国汇商银行（SCB）合作，为规模高达万亿美金的跨境汇款市场提供跨境汇款服务，并利用区块链技术为东南亚数百万外籍劳工提供汇款服务。2021年1月，Velo与亚洲数字银行（Asia Digital Bank）开始开发跨境业务解决方案。

VELO生态伙伴一览

在“跨境支付协议”的愿景中，一个脱离银行账户的金融普惠网络；一个去中心化对公结算及出入金网络；一个主权与商业数字信用可供编程可衍生的金融交易网络，每一步都能带来数字社会的极大变化。从ERC20启动的2017牛市到DeFi启动的2019下半年牛市，其本质都是信用的链上扩张从而激发起的行业流动性盛宴。ERC20通过项目发币造流，DeFi通过资产桥接衍生推流。对“跨境支付协议”来说，回到上述例子：如果这个东西好用到让几个东南亚国家的企业，都更愿意用去中心的链上信用通证来做彼此结算，那么扩张的将是一个前所未有的故事。

By 链得得

投资机构会不会也像买比特币一样这样大规模地买入以太坊？

实际上已经有投资机构在持续买入以太坊了，它就是数字货币领域的头牌基金–灰度公司。灰度资本自成立以来，在比特币之后，很快就成立了以太坊的专项基金。

在数字货币领域活跃的大型投资机构和投资者除了灰度还有另外两个：一个是我们经常听到的MicroStrategy，另一个是推特的CEO杰克多西。然而这两个大买家经常出现在新闻中的消息似乎只是买比特币，杰克多西甚至说只有比特币才是唯一。MicroStrategy的CEO在公开场合也从未谈及以太坊。

所以从这些信息看，灰度似乎是传统机构中为数不多地在买入以太坊的基金。那么对于大多数传统机构投资者，当他们在买入比特币时是如何看以太坊的呢？

今天我从一些蛛丝马迹来分析传统机构对以太坊的看法。

我曾经反复说过：大机构投资一个品种，首要考虑的有流动性、安全性和长期盈利的稳定性。

这三方面综合看，比特币毫无疑问是占据绝对优势的。那么以太坊呢？我还是从这三方面出发把以太坊和比特币进行对比。

首先我们看流动性。所谓的流动性最通俗地说法就是当投资者想卖出或者买入某个投资品时，很快可以在市场上成交，并且成交的价格不会受买入或卖出交易量的影响。

流动性要好这个投资品的市值一定要足够大，如果市值太小，一笔稍大的买卖就会搅动整个市场，从而使价格剧烈波动，这样的投资品，机构投资者是不敢轻易进入的。

在昨天的文章中，我引用了一个数据：灰度资本在过去五个月平均每个月要买入大概2万枚比特币，如果按1万美元一枚算，2万枚比特币就是2亿美元，而2亿美元对机构投资者来说只是九牛一毛。

这个资金量占比特币总市值大概为0.3%不到。如果同等的资金进入以太坊，则会占以太坊总市值的接近2%。

显然从流动性深度方面来说以太坊和比特币差了一个数量级。

我们再看安全性。所谓的安全性主要包括系统受到攻击以及系统稳定运行的状况。在这一点上，我认为无论是现在的以太坊还是未来的以太坊2.0都毫不逊色于比特币。因此纯粹看技术上的安全性以太坊和比特币没有太大的差距，唯一有明显差距的是在共识上，以太坊稍逊于比特币。

我们在看长期的盈利性。我认为这一点是以太坊优于比特币。因为随着以太坊生态的不断壮大和发展，以太坊承载的生态价值必然越来越大，这反过来又会把更多价值平摊到以太币上。而比特币现在无论在技术还是在生态上已经没有太大的空间。

从上面三方面看，以太坊未来的成长性和期望空间要远大于比特币。但是相比比特币，以太坊在流动性上还与比特币有相当大的差距，这个差距通俗地说就是以太币现在价格还不高，要等到以太币的价格再上一个台阶，它的市值非常接近比特币时，这个差距才会变小，才会引起机构投资者的注意。

除此以外，我认为还有一个因素在观念上深深影响着传统投资机构：那就是比特币的发行总量不变，而以太坊现在的发行量理论上是无上限的。

在昨天的文章中，我引述了MicroStrategy CEO的观点，他认为大量的资产包括债券、股票、房地产、贵金属和衍生品等都会随滥发货币而贬值，只有上限固定的比特币能解决这个问题。

这说出了这些传统机构投资者的心底话。

那么以太坊的未来会不会在发行量方面有所变化呢？有，这就是以太坊的1559协议。这个协议一旦实施，以太坊的总量不仅不会继续上升反而有可能会变为通缩。

因此我认为机构投资者会大规模进入以太坊，但不是现在，并且现在进入也只是小批量试探性买入，而他们要大规模进入必须等两个条件满足：第一是以太币的价格要上一个数量级，使其总市值接近或达到比特币的总市值；第二是以太坊要出现明显的通缩效应或至少不会再膨胀。

而要满足这两个条件估计还需要2-3年的时间，而在这之前，机构投资者仍然会以比特币为主要投资对象。

By 道说区块链-链得得

Filecoin 出生不凡，仅投资机构便有红杉资本、DCG集团、A16资本、斯坦福大学等国际知名投资机构，而创始人胡安更是获得了斯坦福大学计算机硕士学位，并且是一个连续创业者。从背景来看，filecoin 阵容十分豪华。

时间回到2014年，胡安（Juan Benet）与几个好友一起创办了协议实验室。2015年1月，协议实验室发布了一个项目——IPFS（InterPlanetary File System），它是星际文件系统的缩写，旨在建立一个分布式存储和共享文件的网络传输协议。它的愿景是取代HTTP，使上网、下载更快以及安全性更高。

IPFS 是一种点对点、版本化、内容寻址的超媒体传输协议，在 IPFS系统的文件是碎片化的，每个碎片都进行哈希运算（复杂的数学运算）最终有个hash值，把整个文件所有的碎片再hash拼接在一起就可以得到整个文件Hash值，然后大众可以通过最终的哈希值直接浏览完整的文件。文件碎片不是存在一个服务器，而是众多服务器。没有中心化服务器，黑客就无法精准攻击、多服务器可以承受更高数量级用户请求页面加载更快，单个服务器被毁数据可以从其它服务器恢复，保证信息永久保存。基于内容寻址的IPFS协议，比HTTP协议有着更安全、成本更低、对用户更友好的优势。

因此，IPFS协议一经推出，就获得了极高的关注度。但IPFS只是一种技术，技术与商业之间仍然缺少纽带。

Filecoin应用而生。

2017年，协议实验室以IPFS为基础，创建了去中心化存储网络Filecoin，旨在建立一个去中心化、高效率的基础网络设施。它是基于IPFS进行众筹的一个项目，也可以认为它是IPFS的激励层。

很多人分不清IPFS与Filecoin的关系，这就好比区块链与比特币，区块链是一种技术，比特币只是这个技术的应用；同理，IPFS也是一种技术，Filecoin则是这个技术的一个应用。

同年，Filecoin在自建平台上进行合规代币融资，半小时便获得2.05亿美元的募资，加上此前私募的5200美元，Filecoin共募集资金2.57亿美元，成为当时融资金额最高的区块链项目。公开资料显示，代币FIL的融资在成本0.75~5美元之间。

二、上线危机

Filecoin 是一个去中心化存储网络。矿工通过闲置硬盘资源进行挖矿，从而获得 FIL代币激励。换言之，比特币采用的是CPU算力挖矿，Filecoin采用的则是硬盘挖矿。

与比特币PoW（工作量证明）挖矿不同，Filecoin是有效存储证明。所以Filecoin矿机并不是硬盘越大算力越大，而是存储的数据越多算力越大。

尽管募资时间较早，但直到2020年7月，Filecoin才上线了测试网。

为了迎接即将上线的主网，各类Filecoin矿机厂商/矿池、资本都已经摩拳擦掌，开始演习竞赛。

随着主网日期临近，FIL价格也开始暴涨，据币小宝数据显示，FIL年初价格仅为4~5美元，在10月15日上线当日一举突破59美元，涨幅近10倍。

就在主网上线前夕，部分矿工反馈出质押币不足、难以开机挖矿的声音，甚至一度引发矿工罢工，导致FIL价格暴跌。

这和Filecoin挖矿的特殊机制有关。

为了防止矿工利用作恶手段获得系统奖励，网络设置了区块链奖励抵押以及前置抵押机制。具体来说，参与挖矿的矿工需要在封装扇区前提供FIL进行前置抵押，而挖矿所得的奖励则会在180天内按线性缓慢释放解锁。

10月23日上午，Filecoin上线Lotus 版本，这一版本中矿工的25%区块奖励可立即释放，另外的75%区块奖励180天线性释放。例如，当前Filecoin单日的区块奖励为20.17万FIL枚，按照规则，当日释放量为5万枚。

由于挖矿需要质押FIL代币，几大主流交易所推出了FIL借贷，币安7天期的FIL借贷利率一度飙升至156%！

数据显示，FILcoin全球共有778个节点，这些节点主要分布在亚洲、欧洲、北美洲，但通过图形可以直观的看到，这些节点大部分来自国内，另外根据飞狐浏览器数据，排名前20的节点中，其中有8个来自中国，因此Filecoin在国内拥有很高的人气。

三、FIL经济模型

FIL发行总量为20亿枚，其分配方案如下：

• 矿工：55%，通过区块奖励的方式线性释放，用于奖励维护区块链，运行合约；
• 矿工储备：15%，用于网络给其他类别的矿工提供激励的，例如，检索矿工、维修矿工；
• 协议实验室：10.5%，作为协议实验室团队的研发及运营费用，按6年线性释放；
• PL团队贡献者 ：4.5%，主要是指协议实验室团队和其他主要贡献者；
• 投资人：10%，分配给参与私募与公募的投资者，按6-36个月线性释放；
• 基金会：5%，作为长期社区建设，网络管理等费用，按6年线性释放；

根据最新的Filecoin代币分配模型，FIL代币总量为20亿枚，矿工通过区块奖励的方式线性释放部分占55%，也就是11亿枚，这部分代币用于奖励维护区块奖励，运行合约。

根据最初的释放模型，引用某机构构建的随区块逐步递减6年减半的函数，计算得出首年区块奖励为15510万枚，每天FIL区块奖励为42.49万枚。现如今，矿工通过区块奖励的方式释放的部分由最初的70%降为55%，那么，理论上每天FIL区块奖励为33.38万枚FIL。

数据显示，24小时Filecoin产量仅为193263 FIL枚，远远不及之前模型计算的33.38万枚。这表明矿工参与度严重不足，低于预期。

四、市值与价格

据币小宝区块链数据显示，FIL价格为29.4美元，流通量为4100万枚，流通市值超过12亿美元。

那么，FIL代币每日新增有多少呢？

• 6年线性释放部分：15.5%*20亿/2190 =14.5万枚；
• 投资人，取平均21个月线性释放计算：10%*20亿/630 =31.7万枚；
• 挖矿部分：根据飞狐浏览器数据，Filecoin每日产量约为19.3万枚左右（6年减半一次）。

综上所述，FIL代币每日新增约为65.5万枚。

另一方面，filecoin算力每日增速约为12PiB，按照目前0.24FIL/32GiB的质押率计算，大约需要新增质押9.4万枚FIL。

因此，FIL每日净增56.1万枚流通量。

按此计算，FIL每年新增流通量为 56.1*360=2亿枚

币小宝认为，相较于目前的流通量而言，FIL的新增抛压依然偏大，未来或不利于二级市场价格。

总之，关于Filecoin项目，支持者认为，Filecoin彻底改变了存储方式，为互联网带来了新的可能；而反对者认为，Filecoin的本质就是一个分布式存储项目，未来还可能面临类似于电驴等版权问题，目前Filecoin中文社区也仅有少数回复，即使按照目前12亿美元的市值，后续向上的空间也不大。

从项目长远发展的角度来看，Filecoin设计的经济模型是有道理的，这种抵押机制有助于保护算法以及用户数据的完整性。但是在当前网络没有实质流入数据，用户需求几乎为零的大环境下，Filecoin的价值最直接的体现在参与项目挖矿的矿机体量之上。

By 币小宝-链得得

Mining is the process of creating valid blocks that add transaction records to Bitcoin’s (BTC) public ledger, called a blockchain. It is a crucial component of the Bitcoin network, as it solves the so-called “double-spend problem.”

The double-spend problem refers to the issue of needing to find consensus on a history of transactions. Ownership of Bitcoin can be proven mathematically through public key cryptography, which cannot be broken with today’s technology. However, cryptography alone cannot guarantee that one particular coin hadn’t previously been sent to someone else. In order to form a shared history of transactions, one needs to have an agreed-upon ordering that is based on, for example, the time of creation of each transaction. But any external input can be manipulated by whoever provides it, requiring participants to trust that third party.

Mining (and blockchain in general) leverages economic incentives to provide a reliable and trustless way of ordering data. The third parties ordering transactions are decentralized, and they receive monetary rewards for correct behavior. On the contrary, any misbehavior results in loss of economic resources, at least as long as the majority remains honest.

In the case of Bitcoin mining, this result is achieved by creating a succession of blocks that can be mathematically proven to have been stacked in the correct order with a certain commitment of resources. The process hinges on the mathematical properties of a cryptographic hash — a way to encode data in a standardized manner. 

Hashes are a one-way encryption tool, meaning that decrypting them to their input data is near-impossible, unless every possible combination is tested until the result matches the given hash.

This is what Bitcoin miners do: they cycle through trillions of hashes every second until they find one that satisfies a condition called “difficulty.” Both the difficulty and the hash are very large numbers expressed in bits, so the condition simply requires the hash to be lower than the difficulty. Difficulty readjusts every 2016 Bitcoin blocks — or approximately two weeks — to maintain a constant block time, which refers to how long it takes to find each new block.

The hash generated by miners is used as an identifier for any particular block, and is composed of the data found in the block header. The most important components of the hash are the Merkle root — another aggregated hash that encapsulates the signatures of all transactions in that block — and the previous block’s unique hash.

This means that altering even the tiniest component of a block would noticeably change its expected hash — and that of every following block, too. Nodes would instantly reject this incorrect version of the blockchain, protecting the network from tampering.

Through the difficulty requirement, the system guarantees that miners put in real work — the time and electricity spent in hashing through the possible combinations. This is why Bitcoin’s consensus protocol is called “proof-of-work,” to distinguish it from other types of block-creation mechanisms. In order to attack the network, malicious entities have no method other than recreating the entirety of its mining power. For Bitcoin, that would cost billions of dollars.

How Bitcoin miners are paid

The network recognizes the work conducted by miners in the form of providing rewards for generating new blocks. There are two types of rewards: new Bitcoin created with each block, and fees paid by users to transact on the network. The block reward of newly minted Bitcoin, amounting to 6.25 BTC as of May 2020, is the majority of miners’ revenue. This value is programmed to halve at fixed intervals of approximately four years, so that eventually, no more Bitcoin is mined and only transaction fees guarantee the security of the network. 

By 2040, the block reward will have reduced to less than 0.2 BTC and only 80,000 Bitcoin out of 21 million will be left up for grabs. Only after 2140 will mining effectively end as the final BTC is slowly mined.

Even though the block reward decreases over time, past halvings have been amply compensated by increases in the Bitcoin price. While this is no guarantee of future results, Bitcoin miners enjoy a relative degree of certainty about their prospects. The community is very supportive of the current mining arrangement, and has no plans to phase it out like Ethereum, another major mineable coin. With the right conditions, individual miners can be confident that the venture will turn a profit. 

Though mining is a competitive business, starting out is still relatively easy. In the early years of Bitcoin, hobbyists could simply boot up some software on their computer and get started right away. Those days are long gone, but setting up a dedicated Bitcoin miner is not as hard as it may seem at first.

How to choose hardware for mining

The first thing to note is that for mining Bitcoin, your only option is to buy an Application-Specific Integrated Circuit device, commonly referred to as an ASIC.

These devices can only mine Bitcoin, but they are highly efficient in doing so. In fact, they are so efficient, that their introduction around 2013 made all other types of calculating devices obsolete almost overnight.

If you are looking to mine with common CPUs, GPUs or more advanced FPGAs, you will need to look into other coins. Though these devices can mine Bitcoin, they do so at such a slow pace that it’s just a waste of time and electricity. For reference, the best graphics card available just before the rise of ASICs, the AMD 7970, produced 800 million hashes per second. An average ASIC today produces 100 trillion hashes per second — a 125,000-fold difference. 

The number of hashes produced in a second is commonly referred to as the “hash rate” and it is an important performance measurement for mining devices.

There are two other main factors that should be considered when purchasing a mining device. One is the electricity consumption, measured in watts. Between two devices that produce the same number of hashes, the one that uses the least electricity will be more profitable.

The third measure is unit cost for each device. It is pointless to have the most energy-efficient ASIC in the world if it takes 10 years to pay itself back.

Bitcoin has a fairly vibrant ecosystem of ASIC manufacturers, which often differ on these three parameters. Some may produce more efficient but also more expensive ASICs, while others make lower-performing hardware that comes at a cheaper price. Before analyzing which device is best suited for your needs, it is important to understand the other factors influencing profit.

The economics of mining Bitcoin

Like the real estate business, mining is all about location, location, location.

Different places in the world will have a different average price of electricity. Residential electricity in many developed countries is often far too expensive for mining to be financially viable. With the price of electricity often ranging between $0.15 and $0.25 per kilowatt hour, mining in residential areas runs too high a bill to remain consistently profitable.

Professional Bitcoin miners will often place their operations in regions where electricity is very cheap. Some of these include the Sichuan region in China, Iceland, the Irkutsk region in Russia, as well as some areas in the United States and Canada. These regions will usually have some form of cheap local electricity generation such as hydroelectric dams. 

The prices enjoyed by these miners will often be below $0.06 per KWh, which is usually low enough to turn a profit even during market downturns.

In general, prices below $0.10 are recommended to maintain a resilient operation. Finding the right location is largely dictated by one’s circumstances. People living in developing countries may not need to go further than their own home, while those in developed countries are likely to have higher barriers to entry.

Aside from the choice of hardware, an individual miner’s profit and revenue depend strongly on market conditions and the presence of other miners. During bull markets, the price of Bitcoin may skyrocket higher, which results in the BTC they mine being worth more on a dollar basis.

However, positive inflows from bull markets are counterbalanced by other miners seeing the increased profits and purchasing more devices to tap into the revenue stream. The result is that each individual miner now generates less BTC than before. Eventually, the revenue generated trends toward an equilibrium point where less efficient miners begin to earn less than they spend on electricity, thus shutting devices off and allowing others to earn more Bitcoin.

Usually, this does not happen instantaneously. There is a certain lag, as ASICs can sometimes not be produced quickly enough to make up for the increase in Bitcoin price.

In a bear market, the opposite principle holds: Revenue is depressed until miners begin to turn off their devices en masse.

To avoid being outcompeted, existing miners must find a winning combination of location and hardware that would allow them to maintain their edge. They must also constantly maintain and reinvest their capital, as more efficient hardware can throttle older miners’ profits completely.

Comparison of mining hardware profitability

There are several calculators online on websites such as AsicMinerValue, CryptoCompare and Nicehash, where the profitability of a mining device can be quickly checked. It’s also possible to estimate profit manually with the following formula:

This is the formula that many of these calculators use, and it simply represents your share of the overall hashrate divided by the network’s total issuance in dollars. The input values required are either fixed parameters (the block time for Bitcoin is 10 minutes, so there are six blocks mined in an hour and 144 in a day), or they can be found on data websites like Blockchain.com or Coinmetrics.

To find the profit, one also needs to subtract the cost of electricity. Thanks to the equivalence between kilowatts and kilowatt hours, this can be as simple as multiplying the device’s power usage by 24 hours in a day and the electricity price per kilowatt hour.

Below is a table illustrating major ASICs on the market today and their payback period — that is, how long it would take for the investment to break even on current revenues. It’s worth noting that a miner’s profit fluctuates wildly over time, and extrapolating a single day into the future can lead to inaccurate results. Nonetheless, it’s a useful metric to understand the relative effectiveness of each device.

As can be seen in the table, none of the ASICs turn a profit at prices of $0.20 per KWh. The relative performance is mostly the same for each of the new-generation ASICs, while older models can be an attractive proposition if electricity is cheap. 

For example, the Canaan AvalonMiner 1066 has low energy efficiency but also a very low price, making it fairly competitive at the low electricity price bracket despite being a fairly old model. The Bitmain S17 Pro, a previous-generation ASIC, still holds its ground due to its lower cost, but quickly becomes unattractive when the reference electricity price rate is raised. MicroBT’s devices appear to have the most balanced performance overall.

One final issue to consider is that this table was compiled in a bull market. Profits may be higher than average, though the halving of 2020 is still fresh and may counterbalance the effect with lower Bitcoin issuance.

Buying and setting up the hardware

There are several shops that sell ASICs to retail customers, while some manufacturers also allow direct purchases. Though they are more difficult to source than common graphics cards, it is still possible for anyone to buy an ASIC at an acceptable price. It is worth noting that buying from shops or manufacturers shipping from foreign countries may result in hefty import dues.

Depending on the manufacturer or the shop, ASICs may be offered without a power supply unit, which will then need to be purchased separately. Some ASIC manufacturers sell their own units, but it is also possible to use PSUs built for servers or gaming computers, though they are likely to require special modifications.

ASICs need to be connected to the internet via an ethernet cable, and they can only be configured through a web browser by connecting to the local IP address, similar to a home router.

Before carrying on, it is necessary to set up an account with a mining pool of choice, which will then provide detailed information on how to connect to its servers. From the ASIC’s web panel, you need to insert the pool’s connection endpoints and account information. The miner will then begin working and generating Bitcoin.

Mining through an established pool is strongly advised, as you will be able to generate constant returns by pooling your hardware with others. While your device may not always find the correct hash to create a block, your contribution will still be rewarded.

Considerations and risks of Bitcoin mining

In addition to the financial risk of not turning a profit, there are technical risks involved in managing high-power devices such as ASICs.

Proper ventilation is required to avoid burning out components due to overheating. The entirety of the miner’s electricity consumption is dissipated into its environment as heat, and one ASIC is likely to be the single-most powerful appliance in your home or office.

That also means you need to carefully consider the limits of your electrical grid. Your home’s electricity network is rated up to a maximum level of power, and each socket has its own rating too. Exceeding those limits could easily result in either frequent outages or electrical fires. Consult an expert to determine whether your electrical setup is safe.

Regular maintenance against dust and other environmental factors is also required to keep the devices healthy. While failures are relatively rare, ASICs can go out of commission earlier than expected without proper maintenance.

While single ASICs may fail, the largest threat to their profitability is them becoming obsolete. More efficient miners will eventually crowd out older devices. 

Historic generations of miners like the Bitmain S9, released around 2016, lasted approximately four years before becoming unprofitable under any electricity price configuration (except zero). However, the speed of advances in computing technology is largely unpredictable.

Bitcoin mining is no exception to any other venture. There is potential for rewards as well as risks. Hopefully, this guide provided a decent starting point to further evaluate both.

By Cointelegraph

A not so long time ago, in a galaxy not so far away, some smart people invented Bitcoin. In the beginning, there were only a few enthusiasts excited about the new currency, but very soon people started to realize the potential. So, the number of miners and people who hold bitcoins and pay with it became to grow exponentially.

It is a great thing, overall, except for one glaring issue: Bitcoin’s transaction speeds are very slow at around 7 transactions per second. As a comparison, Visa performs around 24,000 transactions per second. In 2017 it was clear that there are already too many transactions to handle and some reform is required in order to allow Bitcoin to scale further.

So, why can’t the volume of transactions just be increased?

That’s a great question. Initially, Bitcoin’s Blocksize limit was 1MB (today it’s 2MB). So, why they can’t make it a larger number, for example 820,100MB?

The answer to this can be explained using a heavy traffic metaphor. For example, say we have a heavy traffic issue, so we decide to change the speed limit to 200 miles per hour. What will happen? First of all, there will be a safety issue because at this speed the chances of crashing and injuries increase. However a potentially bigger problem is that now old and small vehicles will not be eligible for highways, because they can’t move fast enough.  So the highway will be full of big people with big strong cars and a regular driver will stay at home or take slower roads to get to where they want to be.

This is exactly what will happen with increasing the limit. More blocks = more data to process for each transaction. So small nodes will not be able to process this increased data and decentralization becomes inevitable.

But there is still a need for more transactions – what is the solution?

The transaction issue has divided the Bitcoin community into two groups. One group claims that Bitcoin was never designed to be a “cup of coffee” payment solution, the other says that it has to scale. As neither group was ready to give up, in August 2017 Bitcoin was basically split using a process called “Hard Fork”, which created a new version of Bitcoin called Bitcoin Cash. Bitcoin Cash uses the same codebase, but with a Blocksize limit of 8Mb. This increased limit makes possible a performance of around two million transactions processed per day.

Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash in your wallet

Ok, the couple is divorced, but who keeps the children?

What happened to people who had Bitcoins before the fork? The easiest way to solve the issue was to clone the wallets. The last mined block, before the fork, was 478558. So, if you had any Bitcoins before that block, after the fork you’ve will end up having the same amount in Bitcoin Cash. Easy, isn’t it? I wish we could do the same with children. (just kidding, it’s creepy!). Just imagine that you suddenly have 4 kids instead of 2. You are not really sure who is your original son. What about the school, friends, family? Sounds like a nightmare. In the Bitcoin world this nightmare came true in what is known as a “Replay Attack”.

You see, each person after the split has the same bitcoin with the same Private key in two wallets. This means that once you make a transaction, people can use the private key for a transaction in another currency. Instead of paying only from one wallet, the same amount will be deducted from the second too.

Like if you have two apartments and somebody enters and takes a laptop in one of them, he also is able to take the same laptop from another apartment. This doesn’t sound so great, right?

So, all the people now have twice more? Sounds great!

Not really, once the amount has increases, it automatically decreases the overall value of the currency, so nobody has actually become richer from the fork itself.

Another popular question: are the two interchangeable? The answer is: no. They are completely separate now and are able to operate independently of each other – I definitely wish the best of luck to both.

Read how to claim Bitcoin Cash here.

Differences

So, you can say it wasn’t confusing enough before, when we needed to choose from Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum and others – now we need to choose from two Bitcoins. Which one is better, you ask? In fact, they are just different, with each currency having its pros and cons. Let’s explore some of these below.

1. New Name

Of course the name itself. The word cash in it is not accidental – the creators are intending that the future of the currency is to become a new form of cash.

2. Advantage/Disadvantage

+  Larger Blocksize limit (8MB). As a result – more transactions are able to be processed for a cheaper fee.

–   Bitcoin has lots of mining pools, so no one is strong enough and a situation where a single miner has a majority of 51% to rule them all is quite impossible.

Bitcoin Cash, on contrary, is highly centralised. Right now we already have 3 mining pools that make more than 51% together. This can be a dangerous situation because the future of the currency becomes too reliant on these three.

3. Technical difference

Bitcoin Cash is aware of its weaknesses and added protection adjustments to close these gaps and make the new currency safer for all to use.  

Feature	Description
Replay and Wipeout Protection	Bitcoin Cash uses a different hash algorithm to the one Bitcoin uses. So, the replay between the two chains is no longer possible.
On-chain scalability	Bitcoin Cash’s technology allows for an increase in the number of blocks. Right now it is 8MB and further increases are possible.
New transaction signatures	Bitcoin Cash has a different transaction signature to verify its distinction from Bitcoin.
Emergency Difficulty Adjustment (EDA)	A new algorithm which ensures normal chain work in case of dramatic changes of the number of miners This provides additional stability to the currency as a whole.

What factors affect BCH price and why did it spike in November?

Bitcoin Cash was announced on August, 2017. But the rocketjump happened on November of the same year. On November 12, the price rose twice in one day and Bitcoin Cash officially took second place, behind Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Cash Price Index

So, what factors caused this spike?

1. Bitcoin had a really bad weekend. Due to lowered hashing power there was about 10000 pending transactions in the network. As a result, buyers moved to buy Bitcoin Cash.
2. Bitcoin Cash came as a solution to the well known speed issues that Bitcoin was suffering from and offered a better solution than Bitcoin’s SegWit2X. Today it is the only technology that offers a scaling solution – which is a killer feature.
3. Another feature that original Bitcoin doesn’t have is the EDA algorithm – which makes the network more stable during high price periods.

What do smart people say about Bitcoin Cash?

Optimistic opinion

Dan Nathan, the founder of Risk Reversal Advisors, said: “I’ve been buying Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum. Those two seem like ones that have some room to go here, while bitcoin seems to have some technical issues.”

Roger Ver, one of the most known Bitcoin angel investors and evangelists, believes “Bitcoin Cash is the real Bitcoin and will have the larger market cap, trade volume and user base in the future.”

Dr Garrick Hileman, economics historian at the University of Cambridge, says “beyond the financial gains Bitcoin holders may realise from the advent of Bitcoin Cash, there are also potential technical benefits, such as observing how BCH performs with 8MB blocks and what kind of use it attracts.”

Ken Shishido, a Bitcoin Cash evangelist, is sure: “When BCH will get more adopted and people will see that you can actually use it to buy goods and services, the price will go up.”

Pessimistic opinion

Adam Back is a British cryptographer says: “Bitcoin has the edge over Bitcoin Сash regarding long-term scaling because Bitcoin cash lacks the infrastructure to support second layer scaling.”

Michael Graham says the original bitcoin may simply have too much of a lead to be overtaken.“While some have gone so far as to proclaim that Bitcoin Cash will ultimately overtake Bitcoin as ‘the bitcoin,’ the overall consensus appears to be that BTC is unlikely to give up its spot as the #1 cryptoasset anytime soon.”

Neutral opinion

Brian Kelly CEO & Founder BKCM LLC thinks: “I think both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash are a great bet. Bitcoin is like the monetary base and Bitcoin Cash is the transactional currency similar to a global M1.”

By CoinTelegraph

• Altcoins are alternatives to Bitcoin.
• Altcoins are a form of digital currency, or cryptocurrency, each with its own set of rules
• Altcoins are very new and their prices can be very volatile.

How Do Altcoins Work?

Generally speaking, altcoins work much like the original Bitcoin. Using a private key, you can send a payment from your digital wallet to another user’s wallet. In a cryptocurrency such as these, there is a blockchain, or recording ledger, where the transactions are permanently and publicly recorded, so exchanges can’t be altered or denied after the fact.² The blockchain is secured by mathematics proofs which confirm transactions in blocks.³

Altcoin vs. Bitcoin

Altcoins don’t all follow the same rules as Bitcoin. For example, while Bitcoin will only ever mine, or produce, bitcoins every 10 minutes, an altcoin called Litecoin will produce coins every 2.5 minutes. This makes Litecoin able to process payments faster. Litecoin will also produce 84 million litecoins, whereas Bitcoin will only produce 21 million bitcoins.⁴

Litecoin also uses a different set of rules for mining than bitcoin. Whereas bitcoins require costly hardware to mine, litecoins can be mined with common computer hardware.

Litecoin is just one of the thousands of altcoins on the market. Some altcoins stand out as popular alternatives to Bitcoin, although they don’t reach Bitcoin’s $100 billion market cap.⁵ A few examples of altcoins include:

• Ethereum
• Ripple
• Dash
• Litecoin
• NEM
• Monero⁶

Pros and Cons of Altcoins

Pros

• Improve on Bitcoin’s flaws
• Provide competition
• Low transaction fees

Cons

• Value is very volatile
• High potential for scams and fraud

Pros explained

• Improve on Bitcoin’s flaws: Altcoins are generally designed to address a perceived shortcoming with the Bitcoin framework, whether it’s speed, mining cost, or some other factor.
• Provide competition: By tweaking the rules under which Bitcoin operates, altcoin creators make space for new competitors to the Bitcoin system.
• Low transaction fees: One of the benefits of using altcoins as a payment method, in addition to secure blockchain technology, is the relatively low transaction fees charged for each transaction.

Cons explained

• Value is very volatile: As an investment, altcoins are very new and their value can change drastically.
• High potential for scams and fraud: Altcoins, as with Bitcoin, are frequently the subject of scams and other fraudulent schemes.⁷

Types of Altcoins

Altcoins are sometimes projects from enthusiasts, and sometimes the basis for whole new businesses. They can even be more than coins, developing into entire new frameworks for everything from messaging applications to online marketplaces.

An altcoin will often change Bitcoin’s rules sufficiently to do something uniquely productive and may have a particular application.

Some coins, such as solarcoin, have been designed as a ​unit of exchange for solar power production. Others, such as namecoin, have formed the basis for a new system of domain names on the Internet.

Consider these different types of altcoins.

Stablecoins

Stablecoins are altcoins that are designed to combat the volatility of cryptocurrency by tying their value to an underlying index, commodity, or security. Tether is one example of a stablecoin; Libra is a stablecoin under development by Facebook.⁸

Digital tokens

Altcoins that function as digital tokens are supported by an underlying blockchain platform. For example, Tether can also be considered a digital token, as it is built on Ethereum and other blockchains.⁹

Some investors seek to earn returns by exchanging altcoins with each other, too, but as an investment, it’s risky. Virtual currencies trade on unregulated exchanges, which leave you vulnerable to price manipulation, fraud, and other problems.

By Danny Bradbury

有人说币圈是20世纪初的中国股市，潜藏着巨大的机遇。也有人认为这些就是泡沫，一进场就被套。

在大多数人看来，数字货币的市场依然是一片蓝海，虽然发展尚处早期，但已经有很多人把全部身家梭哈进去了。

对于众多从股市转向币圈的投资者来说，币市反而更容易上手，那么炒币是否和炒股一样？他们究竟有什么区别？我们将从战略层、结构层、现象层三个角度来诠释二者的不同之处。

战略层

战略层，即投资初心和理念，而股市和币市的理念也是不一样的，这个理念决定了你究竟能在这条路上走多远。

一、认知

我们必须明白，你进行区块链投资的目的是什么，是想当赌博玩玩，还是放长线，价值投资，投个几年。

众所周知，赌博是零和游戏，有人输了钱，必然有人赢了钱。而对于赌场或庄家而言，数学概率上的优势可以保障他们包赢不亏。

股市往近看也是个零和游戏，你在股市赢的钱肯定都是其他股民亏的。但是从长远来看，如果你采取价值投资策略，那么股市就是个增量市场，因为上市企业的营业收益会增加股市上的资金总量。

而币市则不一样，你投资区块链，看中的不仅是一个项目的发展，更是区块链这个行业本身的发展。

另外，你要看清一个事实，现在区块链行业，大多数人都是在炒币，真正做实事的人反而并不多。

二、心态

你要知道，在币市，不受任何监督，投资者不受任何保护。涨跌随意，有随时清零风险，并且由于技术上的不成熟，经常发生黑客盗币风险。

散户心态是市场上绝大多数人的心理。除了以上这些，项目方跑路、代投跑路都很正常，导致最后血本无归。大家都在追求一个财富梦，不过可能这个梦本身就是假的，很多人一开始就走在了错误的道路上。

在股市，大多数公司至少是有业务模型和商业模式的，而在币圈，很多项目甚至连白皮书都没有就开始ico，而且还有很多人疯狂追投，这一点是非常可怕的。

而你，就是那个随时可以被庄家收割的赌徒。

赌博本身其实并不可怕，可怕的是，你不知道你自己正在赌博。

结构层

结构层包括风险管理和收益的把控，还有目前数字货币的技术应用场景。

一、风险

投资的刚需是避险，如果你不能做好风险管理，那也就等同于你一只无头苍蝇，我们先来看看政策风险。

股市：中国股市由中国证券监督管理委员会管理和监督，国家可以通过政策调控股市。股票交易有法定的交易场所，固定的交易时间及涨跌幅的限制，风险可控。

币市：除了各国不同的政策影响外，不受任何监督，投资者不受任何保护。而且涨跌随意，随时归零。

从去年的94，到今年的两会，G20峰会，到SEC（美国证券交易委员会），其实大家可以看到币价和政策脱不了关系，一个文件下来，暴跌真的是几分钟的事情。

除了政策风险之外，还有技术风险。

2014年2月，MT.Gox在网站页面宣传停止交易并随后申请破产。由于受到黑客攻击，总计744000个比特币失窃，而且这一损失多年都未被发现，除了平台的75万个比特币之外，门头沟自称平台自身的10万个比特币也被盗，也就是说，这次被盗总共丢失了85万枚比特币。

先不说著名的“门头沟”事件，其他交易所所资产被盗事件也经常是一年出现好多起，一旦被盗，币价急跌，市场就会受到影响。

除此之外，比特币为了取得去中心化的特点，它一定也失去了什么，就是效率。比特币世界强调公平，现实世界强调效率。

转账时间慢，手续费高等等成为了比特币作为金融产品的弊端。

二、收益率

相对于余额宝、p2p来说，虽然炒股炒币都是不亚于赌博的高风险投资方式，但他们的收益率依然是有区别的。

股市虽然相对于货币基金和债券、指数基金来说，是高风险高收益，但在赌场和币市而言，其实是个中等风险中等收益的温顺场所。

只要不是某国的不规范股市或者遇到1929年、2008年那样的经济危机，股民们并不是很容易输的倾家荡产。

币市的高收益高到什么程度呢？大家都知道，股神巴菲特持仓的平均年化收益不过是20%，但是很多币市的数字资产，在短短几年间都已经实现了上百倍、上千倍甚至上万倍的增长。尤其是去年的爱希欧，只要参加就有几倍甚至几十倍。

但是除了主流币以外，大部分山寨币的波动已经不能用大来形容了，正所谓股市有跌停，而币市有归零。

三、应用场景

区块链有去中心化的思想。当未来基础信息技术设施发展使得效率不再是问题，那么去中心化的诉求就会愈发强烈，所引起的变革就会更猛烈，而这个变革，就是区块链投资的不确定因素。

虽然有很多项目已经落地，但仍然不能代表它们解决了实际问题，要知道互联网时代的所有产品都是落地的，而区块链时代我们大多数人投的只是概念而已。

可以确定的是，越来越多的政府、银行和国家机构开始应用区块链技术，而量变引起质变，真正的好项目会随着潮水褪去让投资者获得更高的收益。

现象层

现象层主要包括不同国家对于数字货币市场的政策和规则等。

一、交易物不同

股市：股市购买的是股票，股票（stock）是股份公司发行的所有权凭证，是股份公司为筹集资金而发行给各个股东作为持股凭证并借以取得股息和红利的一种有价证券。

而每股股票都代表股东对企业拥有一个基本单位的所有权。每支股票的背后都会有一家上市公司。同时，每家上市公司都会发行股票。

币市：币市购买的是数字代币或称通证（token），本质是一串数字代码，市场基于对于代币价值的信任预期而产生交易。

二、投资者不同

股市：开通股票账户必须本人现场确认，不同风险级别的产品需要有合格投资者审核。

币市：无任何限制，会操作相关交易网站或软件即可。（部分国家地区的部分交易所需要实名认证）

三、交易场所

股市：股票只能在证券交易所交易。中国股市仅在上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所两处交易。一只股票只能上一个交易所。

币市：数字货币交易所或点对点场外交易皆可完成数字货币的交易。一只数字货币可以同时在多家交易所买卖。了解清楚这点差别，你就明白为什么在币市中存在搬砖套利，而在股市中却没有。

四、交易规则

股市：

交易时间确定：周一至周五 (法定休假日除外)；上午9：30 –11：30 下午13：00 — 15：00。

涨跌幅有限制：单日涨跌不能超过10%。

交易单位：股票的交易单位为“股”，100股=1手，委托买入数量必须为100股或其整数倍。

币市：

1.二十四小时不间断交易。

2.涨跌幅不限制：一日涨跌50%都可能会出现。

3.交易单位：不同交易所对于不同的币种的单笔交易数量规定不同，以比特币为例其最小单位Satoshi 聪，1聪=0.00000001比特币，1Satoshi = 0.00000001 BTC。

但是大部分比特币交易所有对最低交易数量进行规定，比如说OKCoin的比特币最小交易数量为0.01个。

五、监管机构不同

股市：中国股市由中国证券监督管理委员会（简称证监会）管理和监督，证监会负责维护证券市场秩序，保证其合法运行。

币市：币市是世界范围内高度自由的市场，不受任何国家的完全监控，但受制于各国监管的政策影响，交易信息高度透明，任何交易者可以通过区块链浏览器，查询到所有交易记录。

六、募集资金方法不同

股市：股份公司为筹集资金而发行股票，需要在各国证券监督管理委员会的管理和监督下执行，经由证监会的严格审核，并通过一系列的条件限制，达到相关的标准，方可批准上市并发行股票，募集资金。

币市：在没有任何机构审核的前提下，个人和机构都可以进行ico（首次公开发行）、私募、分叉等方式筹集资金，并且不受任何监督，投资者不受任何保护。

正确看待股市与币市的风险异同，合理配置资金才是正确的币市投资姿势。

By 一只肥猫君

比特币是一种投资品，这件事已经不用再强调了。国家已经不止一次在各个文件中都提到比特币被定义为一种商品，投资品或是资产。如果到了今天，你还认为比特币还有其他一些主流的加密货币是骗局或是传销的话，那你可能真的需要花些时间来仔细学习一下，这些东西究竟是什么？

尽管上述的定义不是完全准确，国内外与不同国家之间的认定也有差异。但我们认为商品的定义是一个所有人都可以接受的结果，而就整个行业目前的发展水平而言，我们似乎更愿意将其定义为一种产品，一种不依赖于某个中心化的公司发布的产品。这个产品既可以用来做跨境支付的中介，也可以作为价值存储的手段，同时也是投资获利的工具。

那么与传统的投资品相比，比特币究竟有哪些本质上的不同？

基本面 巴菲特在最近一次股东大会中，曾经给比特币下过这么一个定义。他认为比特币是某种反人类的东西。尽管巴菲特的语言有些偏激，可如果按照他的逻辑分析，比特币反人类的最大特征应该就隐藏在比特币的基本面当中，这一点也是被整个行业提到最多的一点，去中心化。

传统的各类投资品都有一个信用背书，且这个信用背书通常是极为中心化的。不管是国家也好，证券交易所也好，总有一方在背后支撑整个交易。拿股票来举例子的话，股票的背后就是法律和国家来做担保。证券交易所负责审核需要上市的股票，如果出现诶欺诈行为，证券交易所通常要承担赔偿责任。而股票市场中交易的股票，其背后代表的公司资产通常是有国家或是证券交易协会提供信用背书，保证你买到的并不是一串简单的数据。拿外汇交易来说，背后就代表着各个国家的钱。如果你参与的并不是带有杠杆的交易工具而是真正的现货购买，那么你的钱最后都会有其他国家的钱做支撑和结算。

但比特币却并非如此。很多人认为比特币是骗局的最大原因，也是因为这些人认为比特币的背后并没有任何实物的支撑。一般情况下确实会被认为是这样，但是我们在之前的一篇文章中也跟大家分析过，比特币的底层其实是有实物支撑的，深网的商品交易和挖矿成本是实物，越来越多与比特币挂钩的资产也是实物。这里简单一提，略过不表，有兴趣的朋友可以去看看我们之前的文章。我们只说在大多数人眼中，比特币最反人类的一点。就是没有中心化的机构提供信用背书，没有信用背书比特币如何能够产生信用，又或者说如何产生令大多数人认可的价值呢？

比特币的信用已经早早的写在了它的运行机制里面，用数学加密算法来确保安全和不被篡改。这就好像有一家银行打开大门，对所有人说我们以后不收费了，而且我们这里记的账存的钱绝对不会出错，不信的话你们可以随时进来检查。规则都已经写好了，不可改变，至于安全不安全，你自己来看。这些是所有读过比特币白皮书，理解比特币精神的人和精通数学密码学的专家们共同认可且可以随时检查的规则。任何一个搞懂了比特币原理的人也会明白，比特币早就用自己的系统向所有人证明了这一切。这一点也是我们经常说的，数学上的安全感。整个系统的透明是由密码学和数学构建起来的。人会出错，但是数学计算不会。

顺着这一观点，我们可以引出比特币与其他传统投资品基本面上的第二个不同之处。用数学和密码学的方式规定出比特币的总量是2100万，同时不可篡改，不可增发，产生的过程不可逆，规则不可变。都是已经用密码学和数学定死的事情。我们常常听到这样一句话，数学带来的安全感，远比中心化的机构提供的安全感要强得多，也是这个道理。

传统的投资品虽然有中心化机构的背书。却依然无法避免欺诈，造假，和肆意的增发。不论是货币，股票，外汇，大宗商品，都面临着无限增发的风险，且交易过程不透明，总量不透明。我们知道这一点对大多数的人来说，可能并不符合他们所熟知的常识，这可能也是巴菲特想强调的，比特币中反人类的一点。但是，在证券公司审核放水，外汇平台诈骗，国家货币超发的大背景下，也许是时候沉下心来想想。究竟哪里带给我们的安全感更强呢？

流通层面 刚才我们说，我们可以把比特币看作是一个产品，一个用来解决跨境支付和存储价值的产品。是产品就有估值，有估值就涉及流通。

与传统的投资品相比，比特币的流通范围也存在着本质上的不同。比特币是一个全球投资品，其可以在全球范围内自由流通，这里指的是私人间交易，传统的股票，证券，外汇都很难做到这一点。举两个简单的例子，假设你购买了a股或是美股，当你要转让的时候，你只能在当地的证券市场卖出，然后由证券公司撮合交易变现。假设你的朋友想从你手上购买股票，不管购买体量是大是小，都必须有一个第三方参与其中，你和你的朋友之间无法实现点对点的交换。这是其一。

其二是适用边界的问题。不管是货币还是股票，都有适用边界的问题。这个限制其实是刚才谈到的第一点造成的直接影响。也就是说，我参与了a股的投资，这份价值的认可仅限于中国地区。不仅无法发给我认识的任何一个人，也没有办法在世界的其他地方获得变现的权利，永远只是停留在账面上的财富而已。当你想要变现换回其他国家的货币时，又可能面临重重的提现限制或是外汇管制。而比特币则没有这些顾虑，在任何你希望的时间都可以打开Localbitcoin或是本地的交易所，随时将之变现。世界各地也分布有很多比特币的ATM，也可以帮助你随时把手里的钱换成比特币，或是把比特币换成当地的货币。

这种优势和效率是很多中心化的机构无法比拟的。国际电汇组织swift（环球银行间金融通信协会）要花很长时间，才能在一个新的国家找到合适的代理来完成国际跨境汇款业务。而比特币说，对不起，我们的代理人都是全球各国的参与者，免费且自愿。事实上也确实如此，比特币的使用范围。已经超过了swift的适用范围。

心理层面 最后来谈谈心理层面的区别。比特币是一种很神奇的投资品，他的真正参与者们（这里所说的参与者不包括加密数字市场里的短期投机者，因为全世界各地的投机者心理状态都是一样的）心态与传统投资领域投资者的心态完全相反，这个也是我们观察到的十分有趣的现象之一。

在传统的投资领域，投资者们的特点是，投资者信心无限低，观望者信心无限高。这句话怎么理解呢？你可以想一下，不管是现在的a股市场，还是房地产投资者们的表现都是这样的。当你在场外的时候，你会对这个市场很有信心，每时每刻都想进去赚一把钱。没有买房子的人都认为房价只涨不跌，而当你入场的时候，成为了某种资产的持有者，你的心态就会悄然发生变化。只要赚了一点钱，你就会想，这个资产的价值是不是太高了？如果你是很多套房子的房东，在房价只是略微下调的情况下，你对房价的估值会远远低于潜在投资者对房价的平均估值。

而在比特币包括其他加密货币的投资领域中则恰恰相反。比特币投资者是，投资者信心无限高，观望者恐慌无限高。持有加密货币头寸的投资者大多信心十足，仓位只只增不减，越跌越买，信心无限高。而在场外观望的人呢，一边看着价格的波动，一边又不愿意投资一分钱进入这个市场当中。既不愿意学习了解，又不愿意放弃对这个市场的关注。价格下跌时，就大声高呼比特币的末日要到了。价格上涨时，又比谁都害怕自己错过一个完美的投资品。

出现这种差异的根本原因是，比特币有一套其他投资品所没有的逻辑和哲学。当然这么说，听起来特别的虚无缥缈，但这也确实是造成这种现象的根本原因。同时，整个市场投机者多，换手率高，行情波动大。这些都是行业或是市场处在早期阶段的表现，而恰恰正是这些特点和心理状态。使得比特币在全球范围内越来越趋近于一个完美的价值存储工具。这一点是任何投资品，都不具备的优势。

By 持币者-玩币族

1.期货合同的起源

叶圣陶先生的《多收了三五斗》中有这样一句话：“去年是水灾，收成不好，亏本。今年算是好年时，收成好，还是亏本！”讲述了20世纪初期农民的悲惨境地，当碰到灾年的时候，粮食大量减产甚至颗粒无收，肯定是亏钱；当碰到大丰收时，却因为粮食过剩和米行联手压低价格，依然赚不到钱。

这种情况直到现在依然存在。以下是去年部分农产品滞销情况统计。

当市场价格低时，中间商可以把货物囤积在仓库里，等到下个上涨周期时再出货。虽然囤货需要负担成本，但有时却能爆赚几十倍，如：蒜你狠，姜你军，豆你玩。普通农民不可能把货屯几年等价格上涨时卖出，他们不希望价格剧烈地波动，只要每年能卖出正常的价格他们就谢天谢地了。有什么办法能实现他们的愿望呢？

在17世纪的日本，大阪的定屋米市展开了远期合同的稻米交易。简单来说，就是在水稻种下去的时候，我就跟你签订了合同，约定以1.5元每斤的价格购买你所有的产量，你不能卖给其他人。等水稻长出来的时候，无论市价是0.5元还是5元，你的所有水稻都归我。这样，农民获得了稳定的收益，而稻米交易商获得了价格暴涨行情下的爆赚的机会。

1865年芝加哥交易所用标准的期货合同代替了远期合同，并实行了保证金制度。远期合同的内容是买卖双方通过谈判自己定制的，属于场外交易；期货合同则是在交易所内买卖的标准化合约，对普通农民投资者来说更便捷更值得信赖。

2. 虚拟合约简介

2.1. 虚拟合约的起源和作用：

虚拟合约不同于期货合同，他是交易双方签订的、采用数字资产作为保证金的合约。

在比特币世界里，有一群为区块链基础设施做出巨大贡献的人——矿工。矿工有时和水稻农民一样，他们需要让自己未来挖出来的币能以一个稳定的价格卖出。比如现在比特币的价格为1万美元一个，一位矿工担心未来价格会大幅回落，同时他预计自己未来三个月的btc产量为100个，于是他可以在当前价位做空100个btc季度合约，这样可以把未来三个月挖出来的btc以1万美元的价格锁定，不论未来价格涨跌，都和他没关系了。

对于我们交易者来说，合约带来了更多的交易策略。相比现货，在合约中我们可以使用更高的杠杆、更低的费率、以及更便捷的做空手段。

2.2. 合约的要素：

一张合约的形成需要有五个要素：买方与卖方（对手盘）、合约面值、成交价格、到期时间。

对手盘：每一张合约的形成，都一定有一个买方与卖方，因此平常大家说的什么空头多还是多头多，严格来说是错误的，市场上有多少空头持仓就有多少多头持仓。

合约面值：在OKEX设计的标准合约下，比特币合约一张面值100刀，其他主流币合约一张面值10刀。

成交价格：多头和空头按照自己的心理价位在市场上挂出报价，一旦成交，合约即开始生效。

到期时间：交割合约一旦到期，签订该合约的双方需要履行自己的义务，按照到期的价格止损获得利润或者付对手利润。当然交易者在合约到期之前，也可了解合约，实现盈利或亏损。（PS：永续合约采用了创新的设计，永远不交割，但是通过定期交换资金费用实现了价格和现货锚定）

2.3. 合约的特点：

合约的最重要特点是可以使用1到100倍杠杆。

矿工在给自己未来的币做套期保值时，他不可能把未来的币拿过来做保证金的。这里就体现了杠杆的伟大之处。他可以只使用想套保的币的10分之一，拿过来做保证金，即可对自己全部仓位进行套保。这样大大增加了资金利用率。

对于我们普通交易者来说，杠杆放大了我们的使用资金。我们可以操作小资金，来获得大资金的收益。杠杆也是有双刃剑的….

3. 虚拟合约简单入门：

3.1. 简单博弈模型：

在合约中无非多和空两个方向，但是我们如何判断接下来的市场是多还是空呢。

上一节我们知道，在合约市场里，有多少空头持仓，就有多少多头持仓。因此平常大家说的什么空头多还是多头多，严格来说是错误的。真正需要注意的是，多方和空方哪一方的杠杆率更高，杠杆率高的一方容易翻车。

我们来看最近的一次btc行情：

在8月28日时，市场先向上一小波诱多，随后晚间开始向下暴跌。我们可以从合约大数据中看出一些端倪：

在8月28日时，合约市场做多账户比做空账户数多了一半。 “市场上多方和空方的总仓位价值是相等的。总仓位价值相等，而持有人数不同，那就说明持有人数多的一方人均仓位价值较小，以散户为主。当多空人数持仓比大到一定程度时，就说明散户倾向于看多，而机构和大户倾向于看空。”

我们知道，合约市场中，散户一般采用较高的杠杆，容易爆仓；而大户杠杆率较低，不容易爆仓。通常来说，市场会往阻力最小的方向走。当大多数散户都上车买多之后，短期内很难再有增量资金进入来拉升价格，而价格反而更容易往满仓散户相反的方向走。由此可见，8月28日时，大多数散户在做多，是一种危险信号。

因此，在一个无外部干扰的合约博弈模型中，站在大多数人的对立面（杠杆率高的一边）是一个非常简单而行之有效的策略。遗憾的是，实际BTC市场，并不是一个这样一个简单模型。上面的策略，在场内无增减量资金博弈时会比较有效。其实BTC的长期价格不取决于场内资金，因为场内资金早已经大多数all in比特币或者有一个合理的配置比例，这只会造成BTC一个区间内的波动。真正影响BTC大行情的是场外的增量资金。只有这些无限量的场外资金，他们才可以给BTC带来一个波兰壮阔的牛市。

3.2. 趋势交易：

BTC价格的长期趋势完全取决于这个市场长期资金的净流入/净流出，短期的技术指标、上述博弈模型只能加速或者减慢趋势的到来。

如何去看场外增量资金呢？市面上行情软件统计的所谓资金流入（统计盘面主动买入的量），并不是我们这边所说的增量法币资金进入。区块链上统计的那些转账信息，也只能反应交易活跃度和巨鲸出货可能性。我们其实很难知道场外的资金进入意愿，只能通过图表和一些数据来管中窥豹。

图表反映一切！我认为通过图表，一定程度上可以看出长期资金在进入市场买比特币还是在不断流出。

我的经验里，暴跌之后的市场的走势，反映了买盘资金的活跃度，可以作为长期资金流入的一个参考标准。3月23号我发微博时，拿当下的市场走势举例，认为长线资金在不断买入，是牛市初期的信号。

3.3. 终极简单策略：

刚刚提到短期技术指标只能加速或者减缓趋势的到来。我的建议是切忌盲目信仰各类指标。

K线的形成只需要三个基本要素：时间、价格、交易量。市面上绝大多数指标都是由这三要素经过各种复杂的方法糅合而成。这也是裸k党的理论依据。

我最常用的技术指标是形态。每个市场有它常见的独特形态，这些常见形态来源于这个市场的特性和参与者的特点，BTC市场也是如此。过去数年里在我的观察中，最有用、最简单的两种形态操作策略：突破做多、市场情绪极其乐观亢奋时做跌破均线的瀑布短线空。

3.3.1.如何做突破？

1、首先识别趋势，顺应趋势对真突破有加成。

2、整理的时间越长，突破位置越往整理形态的末端，对真突破越有加成。

3、识别趋势末端的反转（有时候会以假突破形式呈现）：突破后并没有按照突破行情走，成交量缩减，并且随后反向运动甚至打回吞没。

举两个上半年日线突破的例子：

第一个真突破：整理时间长、放量。

第二个假突破：整理时间短、缩量、随后立刻反向运动。

3.3.2.瀑布短线空：

极端乐观的行情下跌破均线的瀑布空。这是我在币圈观察到的最多的形态。这和币民风险偏好高、多军杠杆率高的特点有关。

对于新手来说，掌握好这两种形态，在真突破时买进，市场极度兴奋时跌破均线卖出。即可低交易频次获得稳健利润。

K线周期根据市场运行速度决定，越快越加速的行情，需要看的周期越小。极度兴奋的市场环境下，最小可以看到15、5分钟的k线。

4. 交易系统简介：

很多人会觉得那些能短期暴富或长期稳定盈利的人一定有什么高深的交易系统，让他们在金融市场如鱼得水。而这交易系统是高手的独家秘笈，一般不公示于众，因此新人经常跪舔各路老师，乞求能获得几言片语来窥视其独门秘诀。实际上不是这样的，我可以告诉你们，金融市场没人能百分百预测未来市场，除非他是能决定市场的那只“有形的手”。也没人有什么独家秘笈能让任何人在金融市场稳赚不亏。君不知，《股票大作手回忆录》的李佛摩尔驰骋股票市场最终爆仓自杀；君不知，写《期权出售完全指南》教你交易期权的詹姆斯·科迪尔，去年年底因裸卖空天然气亏光其管理基金的所有资产。

一个合格的交易系统不是稳赚不赔的点金石，它更侧重于告诉你不该犯什么错误。一个合格的交易系统，会驱使你利用清晰的思路找到好的交易机会，同时降低重大亏损的可能性。

一个合格的交易系统的必要条件是：仓位管理、技术分析、心态控制。今天将重点介绍仓位管理，这也是交易系统里最重要的部分。

4.1. 仓位管理：

本节为交易系统中最重要的部分，主要用实例来介绍仓位管理的基本方面。

4.1.1.总仓位杠杆（法币本位）：

我下面用一个简单例子来介绍总仓位杠杆的概念。

在单个OKEX账户里，假设你有1万usdt，你拿出2000usdt买入比特币，那么总仓位杠杆是0.2倍多仓。

如果你再拿这刚刚买入的比特币转入合约账户中，总计买入80张永续btc多单（价值8000刀），那么此刻你的总仓位杠杆是1倍多仓。

在持有上述仓位的同时，你又买入150张的永续btc空单（价值1.5万刀），那么此刻你的总仓位杠杆是0.5倍空单。

下面论述为简单起见，全部使用币本位，且所有资产均划入到永续btc账户里。关于法币本位和币本位的区别，大家可自行了解。

4.1.2.根据个人风险偏好和盯盘时间，选择自己能接受的最大总仓位杠杆L（一般不建议超过2倍）。下图为全仓模式两倍杠杆，这样我的比特币永续合约账户的开仓杠杆，无论如何都不会超过2倍。（注意全仓模式有风险，可能损失合约账户全部资产。逐仓模式最多只能损失开仓部分资产）。

杠杆玩家，只有有效控制了自己的总仓位杠杆，才能不至于遭受重大的资产亏损。

4.1.3.设计开单仓位的阶梯杠杆。对于不确定的行情，使用最大总仓位杠杆的1/10到1/5倍（即L/10到L/5倍）。比如下图：

在上一步设置全仓两倍模式后，该账户一共可开1271张。意味着该交易者满仓梭哈1271张合约，其总杠杆将达到2倍。但是对于不确定的行情，我们必须约束自己只开一成到两成仓位，大约为120张到240张。这样该账户总杠杆将控制在0.2倍到0.4倍之间。杠杆越低，风险敞口越小，对于我们不确定的行情，不可使用过高杠杆。

对于确定性的行情，我们可以使用5成到10成的总杠杆（该例子中是600张到1200张合约）。但是因为杠杆率已经接近我们的可忍受最高杠杆了，我们仍然需要仔细关注盘面，设计止损止盈，防止账户大幅回撤。

4.1.4.对于仓位管理来说，最重要的莫过于止盈止损。下面用一个简单的例子介绍止盈止损的概念：

上图为2019年9月2日14点的okex永续btc合约的图，此刻我看空btc有一波回调，于是我选择在此处开五成仓位（按照上文案例是600张、总仓位1倍）的永续空单，因此我在当前深度开仓如下图

此刻仓位还未成交，但是我仍然可以在okex提前设计止盈止损。我的止盈点是9661，止损点是9801：

选择okex的委托类型为止盈止损，触发价格如上图设置，当触发价格高于我的空单仓位均价，会自动识别为止损委托；当触发价格低于我的空单仓位均价，会自动识别为止盈委托。（！！注意，多单的止盈止损方向和空单相反，即多单的触发价格低于仓位均价，自动识别为止损）

委托价格的设置较为随意，为了能让价格到达之后立刻成交，我们可以设置对市商更有利的价格——空单比触发价格高，多单比触发价格低，差价越大越容易成交（止盈止损有可能无法成交到的概率，因此在可能的条件下，让差价尽可能地大）。

设置好止盈止损委托后，我便可以开开心心的出去玩啦——如果行情朝我预料的方向发展，OK帮我自动止盈；如果行情和我预料的相反，OK也能帮我自动止损；如果我前面的仓位没有成交，那丝毫没有影响，记得下次开单前把止盈止损委托都取消就行了。

4.2. 技术分析：

很多人认为技术分析是交易系统中最重要的环节，其实不然。技术分析能力再强，也不能让你百战百胜，至多可以提高一定的胜率。而胜率低的交易员，如果仓位管理做得好，长期下来仍然可以做到稳定盈利。

我不会跟大家讲具体的技术分析，因为市面上的技术分析五花八门，我自己都不精通，跟你们更不可能讲好。一门好的技术分析，它会告诉你在市场什么情况下有交易机会，市场更有可能朝那个方向走。注意“更有可能”这个词，如果哪个技术告诉你市场百分百会往哪里走，那它一定是伪科学。

对于新手，我建议首先通读一遍《期货市场技术分析》。不是说这本书有多么厉害，一看完就能赚钱了。这本书主要让新手了解技术分析大概是什么样子，了解图表派的信条（图表反映市场所有的消息面、资金面、基本面，通过图表完全可以推断市场的端倪，而不用管任何什么内幕消息——多半是假的或者没有任何用的）。但是，我也反对任何教条主义式照搬某本技术分析书籍理论，来套用到当前市场。比如说新手容易犯错误：遇到三重顶，一定会跌。这就是弄反了相关性和因果性，顶部形态很多是三重顶，那么当前遇到三重顶就一定会跌吗。其实最不应该犯得错误就是“一定”两个字。

By 币界网

• A futures contract is an agreement that obligates a trader to buy or sell an asset at a specific time, quantity and price.
• Bitcoin futures help to bring in additional liquidity to the market and also provide opportunities for arbitrage.
• As the trading value of Bitcoin varies, so too will the value of different Bitcoin futures contracts.

Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Like other cryptocurrencies, it’s also incredibly volatile. In March 2020, for instance, Bitcoin’s price practically halved in just a few days as markets tumbled amid fear about the pandemic. By early September, it had rebounded from about $4,000 to highs of $12,000—before promptly crashing again, dipping under $10,000. 

Spot trading—the practice of buying and selling Bitcoin—forces traders to exchange cryptocurrencies at their current prices. But what if there was a way to lock in that price of $4,000, picking up the Bitcoin a couple of months later? So even if Bitcoin’s price hit $12,000, the counterparty would have to deliver the Bitcoin purchase with $4,000.

There is! It’s called a futures contract. A futures contract is an agreement between two traders that obligates a trader to buy or sell an asset at a specific time, quantity and price. For example, you might enter an agreement in mid-March to buy one Bitcoin for $4,000 for August 30. You could also be on the other side of the deal, agreeing to selling a Bitcoin for a fixed price. If you’re a buyer, you want the trading price of Bitcoin to go up, as you will be able to buy the cryptocurrency at below market value, while sellers want the opposite, profiting if Bitcoin were to decrease in price.BTC Price Buy Bitcoin

People have gone nuts for Bitcoin futures contracts, as big players like CME Group and TD Ameritrade have entered the space. When Bitcoin futures debuted on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) in December 2017, the CBOE website was overwhelmed. On Bakkt, the Bitcoin futures platform operated by the Intercontinental Exchange, about 11,000 futures contracts are traded each day.

In the past 24 hours (as of September 10), $2.03 billion worth of futures contracts were traded on Binance; $2.01 on Huobi; $1.85 on OKEx; and $1.05 on BitMEX.

Futures contracts and the evolution of asset classes

“Futures are an important part of the evolution of asset classes,” Nick Cowan, CEO of the GSX Group, told Decrypt. “They provide a benchmark—a Fair Value, or FV—of what the future value is, allowing arbitrage and liquidity to enter the market.”

Did you know?

Futures contracts originated with 17th-century Japanese samurai, who were paid in rice but were out most of the year doing whatever it is that 17th-century samurai do. But they wanted to ensure that the rice they were paid in, say, February held its value until August, so they traded contracts that obliged the signee to pay out the equivalent amount of rice in August, regardless of its current value. 

The reason why you might trade Bitcoin futures as opposed to just, say, buying lots of Bitcoin worth $4,000 at the time, is that you don’t have to hold them yourself. (Our Japanese samurai analogy is helpful here—the Japanese samurai traded futures contracts so they wouldn’t have to store the rice themselves). 

Some crypto exchanges, such as OKEx, have lower trading fees for futures contracts, which means that traders can squeeze a bit more out of their accounts by using futures. 

How a trader exits their futures position

Nick Cowan, CEO of the GSX Group, told Decrypt: “BTC futures are a great way to bring in additional liquidity to the market and also provide great crypto arbitrage opportunities.” That’s because futures contracts are generally not held until their expiration date. Instead, they are traded like other assets. As the trading value of Bitcoin varies, so too will the value of different Bitcoin futures contracts.  Bitcoin BasicsWhy is Bitcoin’s Price so Volatile?The price of Bitcoin gets wild. From $1,000 in 2013 to $200 in 2015 to nearly $20,000 in 2017 and back down under $4,000 in 2018, trading the original crypto asset is not for the faint of hear…LearnTechnology GuidesKi Chong TranSep 24, 20195 min read 

When entering a futures contract, there are three ways a trader can exit their position: offsetting, rollovers and expiry. Offsetting is the most common, and occurs when a trader creates another futures contract with an equal value and size, making their effective obligations zero as they balance out. Rolling over is done by offsetting a position, but with an expiry date that is further into the future. Expiry is what you’d expect: it’s when a contract reaches its end date and the parties who hold the contract buy or sell at the agreed price.

Futures contracts and hedging

Another trading method for futures is hedging. Hedging is a way to reduce risk, which is useful for traders dealing with the volatility of cryptocurrencies. 

Consider a trader who just bought three Bitcoin at a $10,000 a pop:

• 📈 She believes that the price of Bitcoin will rise by the end of the month, but wants to protect her position in case it goes down.
• 📅 To protect her position, she can enter a futures contract to sell one Bitcoin for $10,000 at the end of the month. 
• 💰 At the end of the month, if Bitcoin has gone up, she will make a profit by selling the remaining two Bitcoin.
• 📉 If it goes down, she will lose money, but this will be limited as she can still sell one Bitcoin for $10,000.

Hedging reduces a trader’s overall risk, although it does also limit their potential profits. 

The pros and cons of Bitcoin futures

First things first: Bitcoin futures are—by their very definition—speculative investments. In its decade-plus year history, Bitcoin has proven that the only constant is price volatility, and while the famed cryptocurrency might be on a bull run now, there’s no telling what tomorrow might bring for Bitcoin. If you speculate at the wrong time, you could be left stranded with a future asset that just isn’t worth it.

There’s also something to be said for being an experienced investor. To successfully utilize futures, an investor needs to understand market behavior, have enough knowledge to pay attention to reasonable market predictions, and enough sense to discard unfounded claims. Ultimately, Bitcoin futures are speculative, but it is possible to leverage good information on a best effort basis. Doing that, however, is not exactly easy, so one might argue that Bitcoin futures are not very accessible for the average person.

The inverse of this is that Bitcoin futures are a great way of getting ahead of a positive market price. If an investor times it right, there could, at least hypothetically, be major profit to be had by leveraging the Bitcoin Futures market.

Bitcoin futures also—counterintuitively—don’t involve holding any Bitcoin whatsoever. Instead, it simply involves trading Bitcoin at a future, pre-agreed upon date, whatever the price at that time may be. Understanding the market might not be the most accessible task, but you don’t even need an ounce of technology to get involved, not even a Bitcoin wallet.

Cash settlements

Bitcoin futures are settled with cash. Because no active Bitcoin trading takes place in a futures market, agreements are satisfied by trading at future, pre-agreed prices. Another oft-cited advantage of the Bitcoin futures market is that the possibility of settling in cash means that no complex software or technological expertise is really necessary in order to get involved in this arena.

Margin trading

One aspect of Bitcoin futures is margin trading, which essentially means that an investor only requires a percentage of a contract’s total in order to participate.

Leveraging 10-20% of a Bitcoin future means that an investment has both a high potential for profit, but also for a loss.

Crypto shorts

“Shorting” is an investment strategy that involves entering into an investment with the intention of generating profit by waiting for a drop in an asset’s market value. Futures and their value are in constant flux, so there are plenty of opportunities for a savvy investor to short on their Bitcoin future at any time.

For example, say the Bitcoin market is in the middle of a 2017-esque crypto winter. An investor can continue to repurchase their future, and then conceivably generate a profit for themselves.

Bitcoin futures platforms

Bitcoin futures are traded on several platforms. The top five by open interest at the time of writing are OKEx, Binance, CME, ByBit, and BitMEX.

• OKEx: OXEx’s futures trading volume, the website projects, reaches up to $1.5 billion per day.
• Binance: The Binance futures market is described on the Binance website as the “fastest-growing crypto-derivative exchange by trading volume,” and offers a leverage of 125x the margin.
• CME: CME’s Bitcoin futures contract trades on Sunday through to Friday, from 5pm to 4pm Central Time, and expire on the last Friday of each month.
• ByBit: ByBit offers up to 100x leverage and specializes in perpetual contracts. New users can, according to the ByBit website, receive up to $90 of user benefit.
• BitMEX: BitMEX offers, according to its website, futures contracts that have “inverse, quanto, and linear payouts,” all of which are explained for users via this table.

Bitcoin futures: a note of caution

The world of Bitcoin futures isn’t all fun and games. Taking on a contract is a serious obligation, and if it reaches its expiry date, the trader has a legal obligation to fulfill it.

Futures could lose you a lot of money, as you could be forced to buy Bitcoin way above its current trading price. Cryptocurrencies are one of the most volatile asset classes available; as with all cryptocurrencies, trading Bitcoin is very risky.  

By Robert Stevens and Scott Chipolina